An Empirical Study of Chinese Inflation Time Lag

Based on the current serious inflation problem at home and abroad, this thesis uses the data of broad money supply and monthly price during 1998 to 2008 and makes an empirical study on Chinese inflation time lag. Through the estimation of the Polynomial Distributed Lags Model, the author concludes that: money supply’s change has significant time lag effect on price’s change, and the lag time is about half a year; the effect is durative and the time is around 5 quarters; the impact of the time lag effect increases at first and then decreases, and its structure isΛ .